Evaluating the effectiveness of a geostatistical approach with groundwater flow modeling for three-dimensional estimation of a contaminant plume

Takai, Shizuka; Shimada, Taro; Takeda, Seiji; Koike, Katsuaki*

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 251, p.104097_1 - 104097_12, 2022/12

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2022.104097

When assessing the risk from an underground environment that is contaminated by radioactive nuclides and hazardous chemicals and planning for remediation, the contaminant plume distribution and the associated uncertainty from measured data should be estimated accurately. While the release history of the contaminant plume may be unknown, the extent of the plume caused by a known source and the associated uncertainty can be calculated inversely from the concentration data using a geostatistical method that accounts for the temporal correlation of its release history and groundwater flow modeling. However, the preceding geostatistical approaches have three drawbacks: (1) no applications of the three-dimensional plume estimation in real situations, (2) no constraints for the estimation of the plume distribution, which can yield negative concentration and large uncertainties, and (3) few applications to actual cases with multiple contaminants. To address these problems, the non-negativity constraint using Gibbs sampling was incorporated into the geostatistical method with groundwater flow modeling for contaminant plume estimation. This method was then tested on groundwater contamination in the Gloucester landfill in Ontario, Canada. The method was applied to three water soluble organic contaminants: 1,4-dioxane, tetrahydrofuran, and diethyl ether. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by the general agreement of the calculated plume distributions of the three contaminants with concentration data from 66 points in 1982 (linear correlation coefficient of about 0.7). In particular, the reproduced large spill of organic contaminants of 1,4-dioxane in 1978 was more accurate than the result of preceding minimum relative entropy-based studies. The same peak also appeared in the tetrahydrofuran and diethyl ether distributions approximately within the range of the retardation factor derived from the fraction of organic carbon.

Estimation of temporal variation of discharged tritium from port of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant; Analysis of the temporal variation and comparison with released tritium from Japan and major nuclear facilities worldwide

Machida, Masahiko; Iwata, Ayako; Yamada, Susumu; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi*; Kobayashi, Takuya; Funasaka, Hideyuki*; Morita, Takami*

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 21(1), p.33 - 49, 2022/03

https://doi.org/10.3327/taesj.J20.036

We estimate monthly discharge inventory of tritium from the port of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F) from Jun 2013 to Mar 2020 by using the Voronoi tessellation scheme, following that the tritium monitoring inside the port has started since Jun 2013. As for the missing period from the initial month, Apr 2011 to May 2013, we calculate it by utilizing the concentration ratio of tritium to that of Cs in stagnant contaminant water during the initial direct discharged period to Jun 2011 and the discharge inventory correlation between tritium and Cs for the next-unknown continuously-discharged period up to May 2013. From the all- estimated results over 9 years, we find that the monthly discharge inventory sharply dropped just after closing the sea-side impermeable sea-wall in Oct. 2015 and subsequently coincided well with the sum of those of drainage and subdrain. By comparing the estimated results with those in the normal operation period before the accident, we point out that the discharge inventory from 1F port is not so large compared to those during the normal operation. Even the estimated one in year 2011 is found to be comparable to the maximum of operating pressurized water reactors discharging relatively large inventory in the order. In the nation level, the whole Japan domestic discharge inventory significantly decreased after the accident due to operation shutdown of most plants. Furthermore, 1F and even Japanese total discharge inventory are found to be entirely minor when comparing those of nuclear reprocessing plants and heavy-water reactors in world-wide level. From the above, we suggest that various scenarios can be openly discussed on the management in tritium stored inside 1F with help of the present estimated data and its comparison with the past discharge inventory.

Estimation of contaminated materials concentration by a geostatistical method with groundwater flow

Takai, Shizuka; Shimada, Taro; Takeda, Seiji; Koike, Katsuaki*

Joho Chishitsu, 32(3), P. 95, 2021/09

https://doi.org/10.6010/geoinformatics.32.3_89

We received best presentation award GEOINROUM-2021 for the presentation on "Estimation of contaminated materials concentration by a geostatistical method with groundwater flow". We submit the comments of impression for getting the Award to Geoinformatics.

Plume dispersion simulation based on ensemble simulation with lattice Boltzmann method

Hasegawa, Yuta; Onodera, Naoyuki; Idomura, Yasuhiro

Dai-34-Kai Suchi Ryutai Rikigaku Shimpojiumu Koen Rombunshu (Internet), 3 Pages, 2020/12

We developed a real-time ensemble simulation code for analyzing urban wind conditions and plume dispersion using a locally mesh-refined lattice Boltzmann method. We validated the developed code against the wind tunnel experiment by AIST, and against the field experiment JU2003 in Oklahoma City. In the case of the wind tunnel experiment, the wind condition showed a good agreement with the experiment, and 61.2% of the tracer gas concentration data observed on the ground satisfied the FACTOR2 condition, that is an accuracy criterion given by the environmental assessment guideline. In the case of the field experiment JU2003, the instantaneous wind speed showed a good agreement with the experiment, while the wind direction showed a difference up to 100. The means of the tracer gas concentration satisfied the FACTOR2 condition at all observation interval. These results demonstrate that the developed code is accurate enough for the environmental assessment.

Seven-year temporal variation of caesium-137 discharge inventory from the port of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant; Continuous monthly estimation of caesium-137 discharge in the period from April 2011 to June 2018

Machida, Masahiko; Yamada, Susumu; Iwata, Ayako; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Kobayashi, Takuya; Watanabe, Masahisa; Funasaka, Hideyuki; Morita, Takami*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(8), p.939 - 950, 2020/08

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2020.1740809

After direct discharges of highly contaminated water of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F) from April to May 2011, Kanda suggested that relatively small amounts of run-off of radionuclides from the 1F port into the Fukushima coastal region subsequently continued by his estimation method. However, the estimation period was limited to up to September 2012. Therefore, this paper estimates the discharge inventory up to June 2018. In the missing period, the Japanese government and Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings have continued efforts to stop the discharge, and consequently, the radionuclide concentration in seawater inside the 1F port has gradually diminished. We show the monthly discharge inventory of Cs up to June 2018 by two methods, i.e., Kanda method partially improved by the authors and a more sophisticated method using Voronoi tessellation reflecting the increase in the number of monitoring points inside the 1 F port. The results show that the former always yields overestimated results compared with the latter, but the ratio of the former to the latter is less than one order of magnitude. Using these results, we evaluate the impact of the discharge inventory from the 1F port into the coastal area and radiation dose upon fish ingestion.

Seven-year temporal variation of cesium-137 discharge inventory from the port of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant; Continuous monthly estimation of cesium-137 discharge in the period from April 2011 to June 2018

Machida, Masahiko; Yamada, Susumu; Iwata, Ayako; Otosaka, Shigeyoshi; Kobayashi, Takuya; Watanabe, Masahisa; Funasaka, Hideyuki; Morita, Takami*

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 18(4), p.226 - 236, 2019/12

https://doi.org/10.3327/taesj.J18.030

After direct discharges of highly-contaminated water from Unit 2 and 3 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F) in April to May 2011, Kanda suggested that relatively small run-off of radionuclides from 1F port into Fukushima coastal region has subsequently continued by using his estimation scheme. However, the estimation period was limited until September 2012, and there has been no report on the issue since the work. Therefore, this paper focuses on discharge inventory from 1F port until June 2018. In the missing period, the central government and Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings have done continuous efforts to stop the discharge, and consequently sea water concentration inside 1F port has diminished gradually. We show monthly discharge inventory of Cs-137 until June 2018 by two schemes, i.e., Kanda's scheme partially improved by authors and more sophisticated one using Voronoi tessellation reflecting the increment of the number of monitoring points inside 1F port. The results show that the former always presents overestimated results compared to the latter but the ratio of former to latter is less than one order. Based on these results, we evaluate impact of discharge inventory from 1F port into the coastal area and radiation does via fish digestion.

Current status and issues for clearance, 5; Concept of restricted use of contaminated rubbles in the Fukushima Daiichi NPS

Shimada, Taro; Miwa, Kazuji; Takeda, Seiji

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO, 61(7), p.531 - 534, 2019/07

Rubbles less than 5 Sv/h of surface dose rate, which are stored outdoor in the Fukushima Daiichi NPS (1F) site, will be recycled and applied in a restricted reuse only within 1F site in the future. However, there is no precedent for establishing the reference values such as dose and/or concentration for reuse or recycling under the existing exposure situation. In this study, we suggested a concept for establishing the reference radioactive concentration of recycling material for the restricted use in the 1F site. In addition, based on the concept, we calculated the reference radiocesium concentrations of the recycling material used for paved roads and the bases of concrete building.

7.1 Environmental contamination due to radionuclides

Saito, Kimiaki

Genshiryoku No Ima To Ashita, p.148 - 151, 2019/03

no abstracts in English

Lessons learned from the process focusing on achieving the state of cold shutdown of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Yoshizawa, Atsufumi*; Oba, Kyoko; Kitamura, Masaharu*

Ningen Kogaku, 54(3), p.124 - 134, 2018/06

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused a severe accident which released a large amount of radioactivity triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake. The existing investigation reports of the accident prepared by several institutions pay attention only to the process which caused the accident but not much to the accident mitigation or the recovery process. This study focused on Unit 3 of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, including its recovery process from the accident. Based on the public data, the time sequences for the recovery process between the accident occurrence and the state of cold shutdown were classified. Then, the groups of actions were sorted out in terms of ergonomics viewpoint. The important responses in the recovery process were identified and analyzed referring to the m-SHEL model. As a result, new lessons were learned from the accident case regarding the actions required for recovering from the accident.

Investigative report on the PVC bag burst in the contamination incident at Plutonium Fuel Research Facility; Radiolysis of organic materials and raising of internal pressure

Cause Investigation Team for the PFRF Contamination Incident

JAEA-Review 2017-038, 83 Pages, 2018/03

JAEA-Review-2017-038.pdf:11.37MB

The contaminated accident occurred at Plutonium Fuel Research Facility on June, 2017. The PVC bag packaging in a fuel storage container burst when a worker opened the lid, and a part of contents (uranium and plutonium) was spattered over the room. In order to clarify the cause of the burst, the Cause Unfolding Team collected information concerning characteristics of the contents from any past records and interview. And then we observed and analyzed the contents in a glove box. We also performed experiments on radiolysis of organic materials, degradation of PVC bag by radiation, and PVC bag burst. Based on fault tree analysis, finally we concluded that the main gas generation source was alpha radiolysis of the epoxy resin mixed with the fuel powder. We hope that the calculation procedures for the gas generation and the inner pressure transition described in this report can be useful reference for the management of fuel storage in other facilities.